Abstract On January 7th, at 9:42 on Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell to 5%, triggering the fuse line again. The two cities continued to fall after the transaction resumed at 9:57, and triggered the second gear again. line. This is already triggered by A shares in 2 trading days in 4 trading days...
On January 7th, at 9:42 on Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell to 5%, triggering the fuse line again. The two cities continued to fall after the transaction resumed at 9:57, and triggered the second fuse line again. . This is the A-share triggering fuse mechanism within 2 trading days in 2 trading days. The two cities have nearly 1600 stocks down, only 35 stocks. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.32% at 3115.89 points; the ChiNext fell 8.66%.
The index of the A-share fuse mark is the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. The fuse threshold is 5% and 7%. After the index triggers 5% of the fuse, the securities within the fuse range will be suspended for 15 minutes; if the whole day triggers 5% before 15 minutes or 7% at any time during the whole day, Suspend trading to close.
On the first trading day of the new year (January 4th), the CSI 300 Index triggered a two-speed fuse threshold of 5% and 7%. The stock spot and stock index futures markets suspended trading throughout the day at 13:33 pm. The index of small and medium-sized board, ChiNext fell more than 8%, only 40 A-shares closed up, and nearly 1,500 fell.
Related reading: Ye Tan: Unreasonable fuses contribute to panic
China's stock market Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply by nearly 7% on Monday, the biggest one-day drop in more than four months. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index triggered the fuse mechanism for the first time, and the two cities suspended trading from 13:34 to close the market. On Monday, the two cities reappeared in a thousand-yuan limit, with warehousing logistics and brokerages leading the decline.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,296.26 points, down 6.86%. The biggest one-day drop was 7.63% on August 25 last year; Shanghai A shares were sold at RMB 238.9 billion, and the previous day turnover was RMB 252.1 billion.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3,469.07 points, down 7.02%; the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index futures contract closed at 3,425.0 points, down 6.75%, with 12,513 contracts. The Shanghai Stock Connect of 13 billion yuan has a net purchase of 0.6 billion yuan.
Market analysis believes that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the fear that a large number of restricted shares will be lifted will make the market's confidence extremely weak. Investors will focus on lightening their positions and trigger panic selling. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have re-emerged in thousands of stocks.
The negative factors summarized by the industry include:
The renminbi against the US dollar fell sharply with the median price on Monday morning, and both hit a new four-and-a-half-year low;
Secondly, the Wanbao dispute effect continues to ferment and spread, especially the regulatory comments on the sources and leverage of insurance placards, which makes investors worried that there may be a risk of retracement in the funds entering the market.
In addition, the expiration of the ban and the implementation of the new stock market fuse mechanism triggered the market to avoid risks.
The implementation of the fuse mechanism since January 1 is the CSI 300 Index. According to the fuse regulations, when the CSI 300 Index rises and falls by 5% on the day, it will trigger the fuse mechanism. The three exchanges (SSE, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, CICC) will suspend trading for 15 minutes; when the CSI 300 Index rises and falls on the day At 7%, the transaction was suspended until the close; when the CSI 300 Index rose in the late stage (14:45 and after), the price fell by 5%, and the trading was suspended until the close.
The blow caused the market panic?
Is it a blow that triggers a panic, or does panic trigger a blow? Many investors have raised such problems after the impact of their account funds. The well-known domestic financial commentator Ye Tan said that the market panic is not caused by the blow, but the unreasonable fuse will encourage panic. She wrote in the comments:
First of all, the market is scared, and it will fall if it is not blown, just as there were no blows in mid-2015 and there were thousands of stocks. There is a frenzied and frenzied panic in the US stock market, and there is a certain relationship between the design of the stamping and the fuse mechanism.
Second, a variety of policies are expected to come out, but if the pace of market reform is too fast, it may not be conducive to the stability of the stock market. The reform of the registration system and the launch of the strategic emerging board will inevitably lead to market expectations that the margin will not enter the market. Coupled with the release of the market value of 1.1 trillion yuan in January, and the clean-up of zombie companies, the weak A-share market could not stand. It cannot be denied that the above policies are all necessary for China's economic transformation, but I am afraid that it should not be launched simultaneously in an over-concentrated period.
Third, there is nothing wrong with the fuse, but the technical means of melting may be wrong. The United States is implementing multi-level fuses, and the A-share market is irrational, and even small thresholds may exacerbate volatility. Falling to 5% triggered the first blow, and the panic that could not be shipped would cause the market to more easily touch the 7% threshold, further generating psychological anxiety.
On the 4th, the global market also fell mostly, but the decline was smaller than the A-share market, while the futures market and the exchange rate market did not lead. From this, it can be inferred that the sharp decline in the A-share market on the day stems from insufficient confidence, but it is not unrelated to the fact that the fuse mechanism is not reasonable.
3000 points for the Shanghai stock index?
On the first trading day of 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index gave a generally bullish forecast to a “follow-upâ€, but before the 2016 New Year, most domestic brokers continued the bullish “traditionâ€.
Some media pointed out that brokers have more consistent judgments on the bottom of the 2016 Shanghai index, and they all agree with the bottom of 3000 points. For example, Guoyuan Securities, CITIC Securities and Huarong Securities all forecast 3,000 points. At the same time, the top of 4500 points also fell in the expectation of most brokers, Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, Shanghai Securities, Guoyuan Securities, Huarong Securities are expected to reach 4,500 points high. There are also some brokers who have higher expectations for this year's market. For example, Zhongtai Securities predicts that the Shanghai index will reach 5,000 points.
Some brokers did not explicitly give a point. For example, CICC said that it will look at 2016 at the end of 2015 compared with the expected market reversal in 2014 and the downturn in interest rates in 2015. A shares, the market outlook is not as clear as the previous two years. Industrial Securities believes that the long-term market in 2016 is very unstable, and the volatile market is reflected in the structural bubble. The first half of the year may still be similar to the 1998 box shock market.
For the year-round market, Huatai Securities believes that the market in the first half of 2016 will be better than the second half of the year. Industrial Securities also suggested that the market is relatively optimistic in the first quarter and the risk in the second quarter.
As in 2015, the state-owned enterprise reform unit continues to be the hot topic of brokerages. In addition, the theme of smart manufacturing and new energy is also favored by many institutions. In the just-opened 2016, with the expected changes in interest rates, liquidity, fiscal and monetary policies, the 2016 stock index will also be affected by some high probability factors.
Extended reading: A-share panic panic spread, global market riots
Hong Kong's Wind InfoCom reported that on Thursday (January 7), the A-share market plunged sharply, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index plunged 5.38%, triggering the first blow. After 15 minutes of trading suspension, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index quickly triggered a 7% blowdown. Early closing, the actual trading time is only 15 minutes.
The plunge in the A-share market has caused the panic to spread to the global market again, and global stock markets and commodities have collectively dive.
New York crude oil futures prices once expanded to more than 3%, the lowest since 2009; Brent oil prices expanded to 11-year low of 33.41 US dollars / barrel.
Spot gold prices expanded their gains, breaking through the 1100 mark and refreshing the new high since November 6.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index once fell more than 3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.9% to a new low since June 2013, the biggest drop in more than four months. The Australian S&P 200 index fell 1.49% and the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.99%.
In addition, the renminbi also fluctuated sharply. The offshore renminbi went out of the roller coaster market in early trading. From the downtrend, it once fell more than 650 points; the onshore renminbi against the US dollar fell more than 300 points.
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