Steel demand can not keep up with the future of steel prices "Hidden risks"

The so-called “a stone provokes a thousand layers of waves”. Some time ago, the central bank’s adjustment information could be a big stone for the steel industry. This big stone not only eased some of the financial pressure on steel traders, but also made domestic steel prices. It took nearly a whole week to get a boost from the wind. However, behind the rise in steel prices, there is a huge hidden danger of demand. The price of steel fell nearly six months. Markets and steel traders urgently need steel prices to rise. However, demand has not kept up with the demand. The future of steel prices is plagued with hidden dangers.

According to the monitoring data, on the 27th, the market price of Heshan Iron & Steel Secondary Screw in Beijing market was 4,120 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 20 from the previous day; the Shanghai market Zhongtian secondary screw was 3980-4010 yuan/ton, compared with the previous day. Rose 10; Guangzhou market, the second grade of large steel screw 4300-4330 yuan / ton, down 30 from the previous day. Shanghai market enthusiasm closing price 4240-4260 yuan / ton, the mainstream rose; Tianjin market enthusiasm closing price 4170-4180 yuan / ton, compared to the weekend rose at 20 yuan / ton; Lecong market hot coil closing price 4300-4320 Yuan/ton, higher than the mainstream of the weekend. After a week's rise in domestic steel prices, the steel prices finally recovered from calm on relatively quiet transactions over the weekend. From the recent trend of steel prices, the current steel prices are somewhat unreasonable and there is no demand for them. Under the stimulus of external policies, prices have been pulled back and steel traders are not afraid to follow the trend of death. This poses a risk for the operation of the steel market in the city.

From the inventory point of view, last week, the steel society total inventory fell by 0.32% to 18.938 million tons, of which 8.448 million tons of thread stocks fell 0.6%, an increase of 4.8% the previous week; wire rod 2.515 million tons increased by 0.5%, an increase of 4.1% the previous week; Hot rolled 4.659 million tons fell 0.6%, 0.8% the previous week; cold rolled 1.714 million tons increased 0.9%, 1.8% the previous week; the medium board 1.60 million tons fell 0.8%, down 2.9% the previous week. Last week, there was a slight recovery in downstream construction, and there was a slight increase in demand, and the boost effect of the adjustment was still there. Therefore, the attitude of merchants was more positive and stocks declined. However, after all, the current demand is limited, and steel traders are interested in bidding, and buyers are afraid to buy large quantities. There is a saying that laughs, "The recent steel price rise is a bit scary, no one buys, he goes up and does not dare to sell, afraid to enter the goods." This week, if the steel price rise is resisted, it is estimated that the stocks rebound. Also close at hand.

Judging from the first half of this year, the expansion of downstream demand may be a bit late, and the industry chain is fully on track. It is estimated that it will start from the second half of the year. Judging from the recent industry situation, although the phenomenon of “10% down payment” has emerged in real estate, it does not represent the relaxation of the country’s room control policy. Since the 10% down payment is only a short-term benefit, the author finds it difficult to The state of the industry has undergone major changes. This year's housing prices would like to come back and the possibility is still relatively small. It is difficult to expect that the real estate industry will drive demand.

In the household appliances industry, on the 26th, Jiang Feng, chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, said that at present, the rigid demand for supporting the growth of the home appliance industry has not been reduced, and the industry will usher in opportunities for recovery in the second half of the year. It is understood that in 2011, China's home appliance industry achieved an output value of 1,140 billion yuan, an increase of 22.4% over 2010, and the growth rate was lower than that of 2010. Among them, 100 million air conditioners, 73 million refrigerators and 66 million washing machines were produced, which were respectively 18%, 9% and 11% higher than the previous year. However, the growth rate has declined in varying degrees. Jiang Feng said that the home appliance industry began to decline significantly in the second half of last year. Jiang Feng expects: "In the first half of the industry, the pressure is greater, but starting from the second half of the year, with the completion of some affordable housing and housing market, the growth rate of the home appliance industry will also begin to rebound in the second half of the year." It can be seen that not only the protection of housing and other industries, the home appliance industry in the short term is also very difficult to stimulate market consumption, in the short term, the market demand or will continue to keep up with the demand.

On the whole, the current market demand is weak, and the stimulation of steel price increases is a kind of stimulating effect, which is the result of the atmosphere of hype affecting the business mentality. However, due to the fact that it has been too long, department steel traders can no longer manage so much, but they have risen but have gone up, but they have only bought out but only formed the current bizarre shape of rising steel prices and demand. This week, After the hard pull-up is broken, under the influence of limited demand, it is estimated that the domestic steel price increase will slow down and even enter the consolidation phase.