Non-ferrous metals industry is expected to pick up in the third quarter

"internal and external troubles" double pressure

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of industrial added value in April increased by 9.3% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2009. As the correlation between industrial growth rate and GDP growth rate is high, the decline in industrial growth rate shows that the growth of the real economy is weak, and the growth rate of demand in the industry as a whole has declined.

Liu Libin, vice president of Henan Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said recently that in recent months, China’s largest aluminum production province, Henan Province, has idle capacity of about 700,000 tons of aluminum, which also shows that the slowdown in domestic economic growth has weakened. The ability to absorb goods. Liu Libin said that by the end of this year, the total idle capacity of the province is expected to reach 1.2 million tons, accounting for more than a quarter of the province's total aluminum production capacity.

According to the latest survey results of 20 domestic major wire and cable companies by SMM, the overall operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises in May was 73.43%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 11.67 percentage points year-on-year. The relatively low operating rate is mainly affected by weak investment in downstream power and infrastructure. In addition, the sharp correction of copper prices has also delayed the cable procurement plan of downstream enterprises.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 227,900 tons of refined copper in April, the lowest since August last year. The copper processing industry, which mainly relies on the import of raw materials, has reduced the purchasing sentiment of raw materials.

The European debt problem continues to ferment, and the global economic growth is showing signs of fatigue, which has also put pressure on the performance of non-ferrous industry companies. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China exported 387 tons of rare earth metals in April, down 78.7% year-on-year.

Third quarter or ushered in performance turning point

In the context of slowing domestic and international demand, the profits of companies in the non-ferrous industry are affected. The recent operation of state-owned enterprises announced by the Ministry of Finance in the near future shows that in the first four months of this year, state-owned enterprises realized a total operating income of 127,160.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a decrease of 5.6% from April. The industries with a large year-on-year decline in profits from January to April were the transportation industry, chemical industry, building materials industry, and non-ferrous industries.

According to statistics from Donghai Securities, in the first quarter of 2012, the listed companies in the non-ferrous industry achieved a net profit of 6.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.8%. “Basic metal prices have fallen across the board year-on-year, with an average decline of around 10%, which is the main reason for the decline in performance.” Donghai Securities pointed out in its latest report.

It is understood that compared with the first quarter of last year, the price of basic metals fell across the year, with the largest decline being nickel, a decrease of 47.92%. Second, copper, zinc, lead, tin and aluminum fell by 21.19%, 18.95% and 10.59 respectively. %, 9.02% and 4.16%. The price of gold increased by 17.94% year-on-year; for small metals, the average price of rare earth increased by about 40%, and the prices of zirconium, titanium and tungsten increased by 24.56%, 17.66% and 9.99% respectively. Molybdenum, antimony, cobalt, antimony and magnesium decreased by 20.68%, 17.12%, 22.08%, 9.87% and 5.29% respectively.

“Compared with the average price in the second quarter of last year, the prices of almost all varieties have declined. The main reason is that the prices of various metals reached a high point in the second quarter of last year, and the base number is relatively high. The second quarter will be the low point of the industry performance year-on-year. With the arrival of the third quarter, the base of 2011 will decline, and the performance will continue to increase year-on-year. The base metals that are expected to grow year-on-year are copper and aluminum; the small metal varieties with rebound and high positions are tungsten, zirconium, titanium and tantalum."

CITIC Securities also pointed out in its latest report that the current overall increase in metal prices is not obvious, but from the survey, the second quarter quarter, the company's operating rate, production and other aspects should rebound. “It is expected that the business performance of the second quarter will improve compared with the first quarter.”

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