Refined oil price increase window is difficult to open recently

On December 1st, the continuous movement of the weighted average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai and Xinta on the basis of the benchmark period of October 7 reached a rate of 3.98%, which was only 0.02% from the 4% red line of the price adjustment. The market raised expectations for refined oil prices. However, this rate of change did not break through 4% “as scheduled” on December 2nd, but dropped slightly to 3.96%. On Dec. 5, it fell further to 3.80%. Analysts in the industry believe that at present, it seems unlikely that the recent rise in the price of refined oil products will be significant. The opening of the upward adjustment window within the current month will depend on the “face” of international crude oil prices in the next two to three weeks.

The price adjustment is expected to reduce international oil prices in the first two consecutive days of December, but was affected by news of the German-French leader summit, U.S. economic data, and S&P’s inclusion of a number of EU countries’ credit ratings on the watch list. After the oil price oscillated substantially, it closed flat. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light crude oil for delivery in January rose slightly by 3 cents to settle at US$100.99 per barrel. The price of London Brent crude oil for London delivery dropped slightly by 13 cents in January. At $109.81 a barrel.

The continuously moving rate of the weighted average price of crude oil in the three places did not extend for a few days before, and fell continuously within the last two statistical days. According to the latest statistical data of Anxious think of interest, as of December 5th, the continuous movement of the weighted average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai, and Xinta has dropped to 3.80%. The red line from 4% is far behind. .

“At present, it seems that the expected price increase of refined oil is not so strong.” An Xun Sixiong energy analyst Liao Kaishun told the China Securities Journal reporter, “Whether the price adjustment window will be opened within the current month, it is not easy to say, the key is to look into the future. Changes in the price of crude oil in two to three weeks will generally increase the crude oil price to more than US$115/barrel.”

But for the future trend of oil prices, he thinks it is not good to judge. On the one hand, the economic fundamentals do not support the continued rise of oil prices, but on the other hand, the geopolitical situation, especially Iran’s tensions, are supporting the oil prices at all times, and the soaring oil prices are not impossible.

Re-emergence of the partial oil shortage Although the expectations of the increase in refined oil prices have weakened in the past two days, the price adjustment since the end of November is expected to have “boosted” the tension in diesel supply in some regions. An Xun Sixiwang energy statistics and monitoring showed that on November 25th, the supply of diesel fuel in gas stations in some regions was renewed, and tension in East China was particularly prominent.

“The anticipated increase in refined oil prices in the previous period has led to sales companies controlling sales, and the completion of the sales task in mid-late and late November also led to a reduction in wholesale sales companies. This is the main reason for the tight supply of diesel oil.” Liao Kaishun analyzed.

According to the tracking data of An Xun Sisuwang Energy to nearly 300 private oil stations and nearly 350 main oil stations nationwide, currently 20% of private oil stations sell at overpriced, 14% of private oil stations and 12% of the main stations. Refueling at the oil station is limited, 16% of the private oil stations and 5% of the main oil stations have oil cuts, and 5% of the main oil stations are queued for fueling. 53% of private oil stations and 79% of the main petrol stations can guarantee normal sales.

Anxun think of interest and energy is expected that the situation of private oil stations this week will still be difficult to improve. However, policy guidance on the main station's full-load operation and increasing diesel and steam reduction will increase supply. “At present, the operating rate of refineries is still relatively high, and it is expected that the tight supply of diesel oil will gradually ease,” said Liao Kaishun.