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The economy seems to be at a crossroads. As the effectiveness of the macro policy became more pronounced, GDP growth fell to a single digit, investment growth fell to around 25%, the PMI index continued to fall, and the real estate market showed a downward trend... These signs indicate that the Chinese economy is beginning to slow down in the second half. The macroeconomic downturn is obvious. The GDP growth rate of 8% to 9% is still a high growth rate. However, for the Chinese economy that is accustomed to double-digit growth, once GDP growth falls to a single digit, some people seem to be unable to adapt. Recently, concerns about China’s economic slowdown and calls for policy relaxation have emerged. However, if we relax the regulation again in order to "guarantee growth", then the real estate bubble will rebound rapidly and the investment tide will return to the 40% high growth rate overheating zone. It will not be long before I have to change the policy tone. In the past five years, we have been constantly switching between “guarantee growth†and “war inflationâ€. In the early summer of May, China’s macroeconomic situation is extremely similar to 2008, when Lehman Brothers has not gone bankrupt. At that time, the domestic economy was hot. In June of that year, the central bank raised the reserve ratio for the last time, but the external demand dominated by international factors has begun to decline. The domestic policy has just transitioned from "two defenses" to "one defense and one control." Two months later, in September of that year, the macro policy turned to "guarantee growth", the amount of credit, housing prices bottoming out and government investment blowout. In fact, since the European debt crisis in May last year to the end of September, due to concerns about the “double dip†of the economy, the policy of substantial tightening has entered a “quiet periodâ€. Now, as the trend of economic growth slows down, the intensity and frequency of macro-control policies are facing a “re-discussion†stage, and returning to “guarantee growth†is not a worry. Many analysts also believe that it is difficult for China to really accept the slowdown in economic growth. Originally, the original intention of fiscal and monetary policies to continue to be surprisingly and administratively controlled was to control overheating of the economy and curb inflation. However, once GDP declines and CPI growth slows down, warnings about the future recession and deflation of China's economy will continue. Is it true that the macroeconomic policy really needs to be reversed in the next six months? If this is the case, the cycle of the Chinese economy is really short and surprising, and it will continue to turn around in the weird cycle of “tightening-relaxingâ€. Over the past decade or so, China has relied on real estate bubble boom and government investment frenzy to maintain long-term economic growth, which has guaranteed the stability of the job market and the upgrading of infrastructure to some extent. But today, this model has entered a "dead end." Even if the economic growth rate slows down significantly in the next two years, the main reason must be the real estate virtual fire, which is the inherent need of the “soft landing†of the housing bubble. Isn't this economic downturn what the year-end macros hope? In fact, the expansion of the currency has come to an end and is now returning to normal. Although this process seems very slow. In 2009 and 2010, China released 17 trillion new loans, which doubled the base currency, followed by China's CPI “on the station†of 5%. Therefore, in order to control inflation, the monetary authorities cannot allow the expansion of the currency to continue for several years. If the base currency M2 really expands to 100 trillion yuan, and the ratio of M2 to GDP is completely over 200%, then China's currency crisis will be on the verge, asset bubbles and inflation will be more difficult to clean up. For the long-term stability of the Chinese economy, completing the economic transformation and lowering the growth rate of the base currency is a must. Today, the growth rate of the base currency M2 has dropped below 16%. Compared with the growth rate of 20% in the past two years, the return of the monetary environment to normality has seen hope, and this growth rate is likely to decline further. About 10% is what the healthy Chinese economy needs. The danger of over-injecting currency morphine has not been overemphasized after two years of practice. After two years of baptism after the financial crisis, I believe that the Chinese economy is once again worried about the decline in GDP, and the probability of returning to "guarantee growth" is not large. Because the decision-making level has basically realized that such "tossing" is not a good thing for the Chinese economy. And giving up the bubble boom in real estate and getting rid of excessive dependence on investment is increasingly becoming a consensus. The crux of the matter is whether the Chinese economy can find new growth drivers after the real estate bubble engine stalls and the monetary environment returns to normal. The answer is yes, and a comprehensive stimulus to internal consumption can solve this problem. However, the policy focus must put more energy into the improvement of the social security system, increase disposable income through tax cuts, reduce the worries of household consumption, and form sustainable spontaneous consumption demand. As a result, China’s domestic economy-led economy has been truly realized, and the 20-year-old domestic demand slogan has been honoured. The endogenous growth momentum will surely keep the Chinese economy prospering. In recent years, the central government has introduced a large number of policies to encourage consumption, and even began to tolerate a large increase in corporate wages, even if this may cause a rapid rise in inflation, which can be seen as an important step in the decision-making process for the future.