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The State Council has recently announced a more stringent energy consumption control plan for the year 2015, setting a cap at four billion tons of standard coal. This represents a significant tightening compared to the previously proposed target of 4.1 billion tons of standard coal. Under this heightened regulatory pressure, there will be a further compression of energy consumption by 100 million tons of standard coal. To put this into perspective, this reduction is equivalent to cutting back on either 40 million kilowatts of nuclear power capacity, 90 million kilowatts of hydroelectric power, or 170 million kilowatts of wind power.
The report emphasizes the need to promote both energy production and consumption, with a clear focus on controlling total energy use. Unlike the previous “17th CPC Central Committee Fifth Plenary Session†and the 12th Five-Year Plan, which used the term “reasonable control,†the current language now explicitly states “control.†Some research institutions predict that if energy consumption per unit of GDP decreases by 16%, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 8% during the 12th Five-Year Plan, the total national energy consumption in 2015 would reach approximately 4.01 billion tons. Therefore, the core of controlling total energy consumption lies in managing GDP growth, effectively placing a cap on regional economic expansion.
Looking at regional development plans, many local governments remain optimistic about sustaining rapid growth seen during the 11th Five-Year Plan. For instance, several regions including Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Sichuan, Gansu, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai aim for an average annual GDP growth rate of 12%, significantly higher than the national target of 7% outlined in the 12th Five-Year Plan. Only Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong plan to keep their GDP growth rate at 8%.
Regional plans suggest that the average annual GDP growth rate during the 12th Five-Year Plan could surpass 10%. By 2015, the total energy consumption across all regions is projected to reach 5.3 billion tons of standard coal, far exceeding the national cap of 4 billion tons. Once the national energy consumption target is finalized, it will be broken down and allocated to different regions. An expert noted that compared to earlier plans, the new target reduces energy consumption by 100 million tons of standard coal, meaning even stricter allocations for each region.
However, this process will not be without challenges. Local governments may find it difficult to adhere to these targets due to their pursuit of economic development. For example, Hunan Province's energy development plan suggests a total energy consumption of 230 million tons of standard coal by 2015, representing an annual growth rate of 10.1%, which exceeds the national allocation by nearly 40 million tons. Wu Hao, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, acknowledged that controlling total energy consumption is a complex task but emphasized its necessity as a way to overcome resource bottlenecks and ensure long-term energy security.
In conclusion, while the strict energy consumption limits present a formidable challenge, they reflect the government’s commitment to balancing economic growth with sustainable development. As we move forward, achieving these goals will require innovative strategies and cooperation between central and local authorities.