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The photovoltaic industry in China has faced significant challenges in recent years, driven by a combination of domestic overcapacity and international trade barriers. The so-called "double reverse" measures—anti-dumping and countervailing duties imposed by both China and the United States—have hit the sector hard, leading to a deep crisis that has left many companies struggling to survive. As a result, the need for a new business model and market diversification has become more urgent than ever.
The global solar PV market, once seen as a promising sunrise industry, has been overshadowed by overproduction and falling prices. In March 2024, the European Commission announced a mandatory import registration system for Chinese PV products, effectively triggering a new round of trade restrictions. This move is expected to create panic among European importers, who may now avoid Chinese suppliers altogether. It's not the first time the industry has faced such obstacles—last year, a nine-month battle between China and Europe over subsidies and anti-dumping investigations highlighted the growing tensions.
Analysts warn that the EU’s ongoing dual anti-dumping measures could push many Chinese solar firms into bankruptcy. According to industry insiders, at least half of the companies may not survive the next few years. The entire supply chain—from polysilicon production to final panel manufacturing—is currently under pressure, with many listed companies reporting losses or declining profits.
Despite this, China has long supported the solar industry through policies like the "Bright Project Plan," which aimed to provide electricity to remote areas using solar power. By 2010, China had become a major player in the global PV market, with several top-tier companies like LDK and Suntech reaching multi-billion-dollar valuations. However, the industry’s reliance on exports has made it vulnerable to foreign policy shifts.
Currently, China produces around 23 GW of solar panels annually, but only about 3.5 GW are installed domestically. This leaves a massive surplus that must be exported, making the industry highly dependent on international markets. When those channels are blocked, the consequences can be severe. With over 40 polysilicon manufacturers operating in China, but only a fraction of them running at full capacity, the industry is facing a serious utilization problem.
Experts argue that the rapid expansion of the sector, fueled by high returns in the early 2000s, led to overinvestment and an oversupply that disrupted the market. From 2007 to 2011, profit margins dropped dramatically, signaling a shift from growth to stagnation. According to Li Junfeng, the development of China’s solar industry has followed a cycle of “creating myths, copying myths, and breaking through myths,†with little innovation driving the growth.
In response to these challenges, a new opportunity is emerging: distributed photovoltaic systems. Policies introduced by the State Grid have made it easier for individuals and businesses to generate their own solar power and even sell excess back to the grid. This shift offers a potential solution for the industry to reduce its reliance on exports and find new demand at home.
For example, residents in Qingdao and Dongying have successfully installed personal solar systems and connected them to the national grid. While the payback period is still long, the cost of equipment is decreasing, and administrative procedures are becoming simpler. Experts believe that the future of the industry lies in expanding the domestic market, especially in industrial parks and commercial buildings where electricity costs are higher.
Companies like Linuo Solar are already taking steps to adapt by building their own power plants, allowing them to consume part of their own production and reduce export dependency. This approach not only helps manage overcapacity but also strengthens the industry’s long-term sustainability.
In conclusion, the photovoltaic industry in China is at a crossroads. While external pressures remain high, internal transformation and a focus on domestic markets offer a path forward. Companies that embrace innovation, diversify their strategies, and build sustainable models will be better positioned to weather the current storm and thrive in the future.