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The photovoltaic industry in China has been facing significant challenges due to the "double anti-dumping" measures imposed by both China and the United States, as well as severe overcapacity within the domestic market. This has led to a deep crisis for many solar companies, forcing them to rethink their business models and seek new markets for growth.
The global solar market, once seen as a promising sunrise industry with strong government support, is now encountering headwinds. In March this year, the European Commission introduced mandatory import registration for PV products from China, marking the start of a dual anti-dumping investigation. This move could lead to panic among European importers, who may begin rejecting Chinese solar products en masse.
This is not the first time that Chinese solar companies have faced trade barriers. In 2012, China-EU solar trade was caught in a nine-month battle, with Europe initiating anti-dumping investigations against Chinese PV products. Analysts warned that these policies would severely impact Chinese solar firms, potentially leading to the bankruptcy of at least half of the industry.
The entire photovoltaic supply chain, from polysilicon production to downstream component manufacturing, is currently experiencing a downturn. Among the 32 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen focused on photovoltaics, nearly half reported pre-losses or pre-reductions, indicating widespread financial strain.
Despite years of strong government support, including initiatives like the "Bright Project Plan" launched in 2001, China's solar industry remains heavily dependent on exports. With more than 90% of its products sold abroad, the industry is vulnerable to international trade policies and market fluctuations.
Liu Linli, marketing director of Shandong Linuo Solar Power Group, pointed out that while China has the world’s largest production capacity, it lacks control over the market. The industry’s rapid expansion, fueled by subsidies and foreign demand, led to overcapacity and vulnerability when trade barriers arose.
According to Li Junfeng from the National Development and Reform Commission, the solar industry has fallen into a "growth trap" since 2007, with excessive investment disrupting market balance. Return rates dropped sharply from 200%–300% in 2007 to just 10% in 2011, highlighting the risks of uncontrolled expansion.
To overcome these challenges, the industry is turning toward distributed power generation. New policies from the State Grid Corporation of China now allow individuals and businesses to connect their solar systems to the grid for free, opening up new opportunities for private solar companies.
For instance, residents in Qingdao and Dongying have successfully installed personal solar systems and connected them to the national grid. Although the return on investment may take 10–20 years, the long-term potential is promising as costs decrease and regulations become more favorable.
Liu Jianli believes that the future of the solar industry lies in diversification. Companies should not only focus on manufacturing but also invest in building solar power plants to reduce reliance on exports. For example, Linuo Solar uses 200MW of its annual 300MW output in its own power plant, significantly reducing the need for external sales.
In conclusion, the photovoltaic industry must adapt, innovate, and explore new markets to survive and thrive in an increasingly competitive environment.