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The "Golden September, Silver October" season for the steel industry has not lived up to expectations, and the traditional "off-season" of winter is now approaching. The domestic steel market remains under significant pressure, with weak demand from downstream sectors. Steel prices have continued to decline, while crude steel production has increased for two consecutive months, adding further downward pressure on the market.
According to the latest market report, steel prices dropped again in the past week. Rebar prices remained under pressure, and despite a slight recovery in some areas, overall price trends continue to be bearish. Crude steel output has risen for two months in a row, but demand from construction and industrial sectors remains sluggish. Merchants are struggling with low sales, and the decline in certain steel products has accelerated. With fundamental factors still pointing toward oversupply, steel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.
In the sheet metal sector, prices continue to fall. Plate prices have dropped steadily, with declines of 10 to 40 yuan per ton in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing over the past week. The influence of cold air is increasing, leading to a shift of northern resources to the south, which is intensifying supply pressures in southern markets. After weeks of falling prices, mainstream mid-table steel prices have reached a multi-month low, yet there has been no noticeable reduction in steel plant production. Downstream industries such as shipbuilding remain weak, and the oversupply issue persists. Hot-rolled coil prices continue to drop, and although some buyers have shown renewed interest due to lower prices, overall purchasing activity remains weak. Some merchants have reported very few inquiries in the market.
In the construction steel market, prices remain weak. Prices in most major cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, have fallen by 10 to 90 yuan per ton this week. Market participants note that the end of the month is approaching, and some merchants are lowering prices to meet sales targets. While a few businesses may attempt to push prices upward against the trend, the overall market atmosphere remains subdued, with little sign of a rebound.
The iron ore market continues to experience frequent fluctuations amid an overall loose supply situation. According to recent analysis reports, domestic iron ore prices have remained relatively stable since October. Import iron ore prices first rose and then fell, with a peak increase of $1.5 per ton at the end of last month. Australia's three major mining companies achieved record iron ore production in the third quarter of this year, and it is expected that production will remain high in the fourth quarter. Given the ample supply in the iron ore market, import prices are likely to see a slight downward trend.
Analysts from Haixin Steel Network believe that the much-anticipated "Golden September, Silver October" did not materialize, and the upcoming winter off-season has left many businesses without hope for a strong performance in the current steel market. High crude steel output combined with weak demand means that the oversupply problem remains the biggest obstacle to any meaningful price recovery. Additionally, tight liquidity conditions at the end of the year are expected to keep the domestic steel market under pressure for the foreseeable future.