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The "golden season" of the steel market has not lived up to expectations, and the traditional "off-season" for winter is now approaching. The domestic steel market remains under pressure, with weak demand from downstream industries. Steel prices have continued to decline, while crude steel production has increased for two consecutive months, adding further downward pressure on the market.
According to the latest report, steel prices fell again in the past week, with rebar continuing to experience a downward trend. Despite rising crude steel output, demand from end-users remains sluggish. Merchants are struggling to move inventory, and some steel products have seen even steeper price declines. Given that the fundamental factors of the steel market remain unchanged, prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.
In the sheet metal sector, prices continue to fall. Plate prices are still declining, with reductions ranging from 10 to 40 yuan per ton in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing. As cold air moves southward, northern resources are flowing into southern markets, increasing supply pressures there. After several weeks of declines, mainstream steel prices have reached a multi-month low, but there’s still no sign of significant production cuts by steel mills. Meanwhile, downstream sectors such as shipbuilding remain weak, and the oversupply situation persists. Hot-rolled coil prices are also falling, and although some buyers are showing renewed interest due to lower prices, overall market demand remains weak. Some merchants have reported a noticeable drop in inquiries.
In the construction steel market, prices remain weak, with weekly price drops ranging from 10 to 90 yuan per ton in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin. Market participants note that the end of the month is approaching, and some merchants are lowering prices to meet sales targets. While a few businesses are trying to push prices higher against the trend, the overall market atmosphere remains lackluster, with little sign of a recovery.
The iron ore market continues to fluctuate amid an overall loose supply situation. According to analysis reports, domestic iron ore prices have remained relatively stable since October. Import iron ore prices first rose and then fell, with a peak increase of $1.5 per ton at the end of last month. Australia's top three mining companies achieved record iron ore production in Q3, and it's expected that output will remain high in Q4. With ample supply, imported iron ore prices are likely to see a slight decline.
Analysts from Haixin Steel Network believe that the much-anticipated "golden September, silver October" did not materialize, and the traditional winter off-season has arrived. Many businesses have lost hope for this year's steel market. High crude steel output, combined with weak demand, means the oversupply issue remains the biggest obstacle to price recovery. Additionally, tight liquidity at year-end is keeping the domestic steel market under pressure, and it's expected to remain challenging in the near future.